Stage 1 lung cancer life expectancy without treatment

ON THIS PAGE: You will find information about the number of people who are diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) each year. You will also read general information on surviving the disease. Remember, survival rates depend on several factors. Use the menu to see other pages.

Worldwide, lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer. NSCLC is the most common type of lung cancer in the United States, accounting for 82% of all lung cancer diagnoses.

This year, an estimated 236,740 adults (117,910 men and 118,830 women) in the United States will be diagnosed with lung cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 2,206,771 people were diagnosed with lung cancer in 2020. These statistics include both small cell lung cancer and NSCLC.

In the United States, the number of new lung cancer cases in men has been dropping annually since the mid-1980s. In women, the number of new cases diagnosed each year started dropping in the mid-2000s. Between 2009 and 2018, incidence rates dropped 1.4% each year in women compared to 2.8% each year in men.

Currently, Black and White women have lower incidence rates than men. Black men are about 15% more likely to get lung cancer than White men. Black women are 16% less likely to get lung cancer when compared with White women. People age 65 and older are more likely to develop the disease. The average age of diagnosis is 70.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death for men and women worldwide. It is estimated that 130,180 deaths (68,820 men and 61,360 women) from this disease will occur in the United States this year. In 2020, an estimated 1,796,144 people died worldwide from the disease.

Lung cancer makes up around 25% of cancer deaths in the United States. However, death rates for the disease have declined by 56% since 1990 in men and 32% since 2002 in women. From 2015 to 2019, the death rates for men with lung cancer dropped by around 5% each year. The death rates for women with lung cancer declined 4% per year. Research indicates that these declines are due to more people not smoking, more people quitting smoking, and advances in diagnosis and treatment.

The 5-year survival rate tells you what percent of people live at least 5 years after the cancer is found. Percent means how many out of 100. The 5-year survival rate for all people with all types of lung cancer is 22%. The 5-year survival rate for men is 18%. The 5-year survival rate for women is 25%. The 5-year survival rate for NSCLC is 26%, compared to 7% for small cell lung cancer.

However, it is important to note that survival rates depend on several factors, including the subtype of lung cancer and the stage of disease.

For people with localized NSCLC, which means the cancer has not spread outside the lung, the overall 5-year survival rate is 63%. For regional NSCLC, which means the cancer has spread outside of the lung to nearby lymph nodes, the 5-year survival rate is about 35%. When cancer has spread to distant parts of the body, called metastatic lung cancer, the 5-year survival rate is 7%. It is important to note that newer therapies like targeted treatments and immunotherapies (see Types of Treatment) are allowing people with metastatic lung cancer to live longer than ever before.

Each year, tens of thousands of people are cured of NSCLC in the United States. And, some patients with advanced lung cancer can live many years after diagnosis. Sometimes patients who are told that their lung cancer is incurable live longer than many who are told that their lung cancer is curable. The important thing to remember is that lung cancer is treatable at any stage, and these treatments have been proven to help people with lung cancer live longer with better quality of life.

It is important to remember that statistics on the survival rates for people with NSCLC are an estimate. The estimate comes from annual data based on the number of people with this cancer in the United States. Also, experts measure the survival statistics every 5 years. This means the estimate may not reflect the results of advancements in how NSCLC is diagnosed or treated from the last 5 years. Talk with your doctor if you have any questions about this information. Learn more about understanding statistics.

Statistics adapted from the American Cancer Society's (ACS) publication, Cancer Facts & Figures 2022, the ACS website, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer website. (All sources accessed January 2022.)

The next section in this guide is Medical Illustrations. It offers drawings of body parts often affected by NSCLC. Use the menu to choose a different section to read in this guide.

Lung cancer is one of the most common types of cancer. A person’s outlook with lung cancer depends on the type of lung cancer they have, the stage at diagnosis, and their overall health.

According to the National Cancer Institute (NCI), nearly 229,000 people in the United States received a lung cancer diagnosis in 2020. Lung cancer accounted for more than 1 in 8 new cancer diagnoses that year.

Lung cancer is localized when it has not spread beyond the lungs. Over time, however, it may spread to other parts of the body. The NCI add that the 5-year survival rate for localized lung cancer is more than 10 times higher than it is for lung cancer that has spread to distant parts of the body.

Receiving a diagnosis of lung cancer can be challenging and may leave a person with many questions. This article will take a look at how quickly lung cancer can spread and how that affects a person’s outlook with the condition.

Healthcare professionals broadly classify lung cancer as one of two types: small cell lung cancer (SCLC) or non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Different types of lung cancer grow at different rates.

NSCLC accounts for about 85% of lung cancer cases. SCLC is less common than NSCLC, but it tends to spread more quickly. Doctors also tend to diagnose SCLC at a later stage, on average.

Lung cancer is more treatable in the early stages, but early detection is relatively uncommon. Approximately 57% of all lung cancers have spread beyond the chest by the time a doctor diagnoses the condition.

That number goes up in the case of SCLC. The American Cancer Society (ACS) report that 2 out of 3 cases of SCLC have already spread beyond the lungs by the time of diagnosis.

The American Lung Association estimate that over 12,000 lives could be saved by increased screening for lung cancer in people who have a high risk of the condition, including those with a history of smoking.

To learn whether or not lung cancer has spread, a healthcare professional may order tests such as:

  • blood tests
  • chest X-rays
  • MRI scans
  • CT scans
  • PET scans
  • bone scans

These tests will help them determine whether the cancer is localized to the lungs and chest or has spread to other areas of the body.

In the early stages, lung cancer may spread to nearby lymph nodes but remain within the chest cavity.

Over time, however, lung cancer may spread to more distant parts of the body through the process of metastasis. The most common sites in the body for lung cancer metastases to appear are:

  • the liver
  • the bones
  • the brain
  • the adrenal glands in the kidneys

Lung cancer cells can spread into nearby tissue in the chest or spread throughout the body through blood vessels or the lymphatic system.

A person’s outlook depends on the specific type of lung cancer they have, the stage at diagnosis, and their overall health.

The overall 5-year survival rate for lung cancer in the U.S. is 20.5% , according to the NCI. This means that about 1 out of 5 people with lung cancer will live for 5 years or longer after diagnosis.

The outlook improves when a doctor diagnoses and treats lung cancer early. The NCI add that over half of people who receive a diagnosis of localized lung cancer will live for 5 years or longer following diagnosis.

As diagnosis and treatment strategies improve, more people are surviving for a decade or longer with the condition.

The survival rates for NSCLC are higher than they are for SCLC.

NSCLC

The ACS report that among people who received a diagnosis of NSCLC in 2010–2016, the 5-year survival rate was:

  • 63% for localized NSCLC
  • 35% for NSCLC that had spread to nearby tissues
  • 7% for NSCLC that had spread to distant parts of the body

The overall 5-year survival rate for people with NSCLC was 25%.

SCLC

The ACS report that among people who received a diagnosis of SCLC in 2010–2016, the 5-year survival rate was:

  • 27% for localized SCLC
  • 16% for SCLC that had spread to nearby tissues
  • 3% for SCLC that had spread to distant parts of the body

The overall 5-year survival rate for people with SCLC was 7%.

Early diagnosis and treatment for lung cancer improve survival rates. Without treatment, the outlook for lung cancer is poor.

A 2013 review of studies found that the average survival time for people with NSCLC who do not receive treatment is just over 7 months. A 2012 review found that the survival time for untreated SCLC is in the range of 2–4 months.

A person’s cancer care team can help them weigh the potential benefits and risks of getting treatment. They may consider the following factors:

  • what type and stage of lung cancer the person has
  • their age and overall health
  • their personal preferences and goals

Treatment may improve survival but can cause side effects that lower quality of life.

Lung cancer is an aggressive form of cancer that spreads rapidly. Survival rates are improving but remain low, particularly for SCLC.

Early diagnosis and treatment improve a person’s chances of living for 5 years or longer with lung cancer.

People who smoke or used to smoke should ask a doctor about whether or not lung cancer screening is right for them.

Receiving a lung cancer diagnosis can be scary, but support is available. A person can connect with their healthcare team to learn more about strategies to slow the spread of lung cancer and improve the outlook.

How long can you survive with lung cancer without treatment?

Without treatment, the outlook for lung cancer is poor. A 2013 review of studies found that the average survival time for people with NSCLC who do not receive treatment is just over 7 months . A 2012 review found that the survival time for untreated SCLC is in the range of 2–4 months.

How fast does lung cancer spread without treatment?

A 2018 study found that the median doubling time varies by type of NSCLC: Adenocarcinomas had a median doubling time of 261 days. Squamous cell carcinomas had a median doubling time of 70 days. Other lung cancers, which included large cell carcinomas and SCLC, also had a median doubling time of 70 days.

What is the life expectancy of someone with stage 1 lung cancer?

Stage I is also called early-stage lung cancer. It often can be cured, and most people can expect to live 5 years or longer.

What happens if lung cancer goes untreated?

Doctor's Response. More than half of lung cancer patients will die within one year of diagnosis even with treatment. Without treatment, patients may die even sooner. For any hope of survival, medical or surgical treatment is necessary.